Section 2 — Attendance & Revenue Forecast Model
How Were Attendance and Revenue Forecasts Developed?
The short answer
The forecast model applies one fixed planning Average Daily Rate of $203 per hotel room night across every attendance scenario, converts overnight visitor visits into attributable hotel room nights at 0.48 room nights per visit, and calculates Tourism Development Tax at 6% of estimated gross hotel revenue. No hotel rate inflation, seasonal premiums, resort fees, or hotel food and beverage revenue are included.
$203
Fixed planning ADR used in every scenario
Planning assumption
0.48
Attributable hotel room nights per overnight visitor visit
Planning assumption
48,000
Attributable hotel room nights at 250,000 visits
Planning projection
$9.74M
Estimated gross hotel revenue at 250,000 visits
Planning projection
$584,640
Estimated annual TDT revenue at 250,000 visits
Planning projection
$5.65M → $7.07M
Museum operating revenue, Year One to Year Five
Planning projection
Full supporting detail
Tap any heading to expand.
Sources referenced
- I AM Children’s Museum planning model
- Orange County Tourism Development Tax rate (to be reconfirmed prior to 2030 opening)
Related sections
This is part of this portal — the full supplemental resource document lives here in the portal.
Download a printable copy (PDF)